“Another factor weighing on equilibrium real interest rates has been the recent weakness of investment. What explains the tepid response of capital spending to historically low interest rates? As mentioned earlier, low productivity growth has certainly been a contributing factor, as firms see fewer profitable investment opportunities. But elevated uncertainty, both political and economic, has likely also played a role. For one, uncertainty about the outlook for government policy in health care, regulation, taxes, and trade can cause firms to delay projects until the policy environment clarifies.
Firms also seem quite uncertain about the disruptive capacity of new technologies. Technological developments appear to be rapidly reshaping entire industries‑‑in retail, transportation, and communications. Elevated uncertainty about the continued viability of long-standing business models could be weighing on investment decisions. Relatedly, it is possible that as the economy evolves in response to new technologies, production is becoming less capital intensive than it was in earlier decades. “
ここから先は Shortman会員 限定です。