為替日報（2017年9月21日）

おはようございます。

Shortmanです。

すみません、バタバタしておりまして。

昨日9月の米連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の声明が公表されました。

FOMC Statement

毎回同じで申し訳ないですが、前回7月の声明との変更点を比較しておきましょう。

2017年6月14日FOMC声明

2017年9月20日FOMC声明

景気・物価の現状

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined.Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

景気・物価の見通し

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

金融政策（FF金利誘導目標）

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

金融政策（バランスシート縮小）

For the time being, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated; this program is described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

投票結果

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.

景気・物価の現状

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low.Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

景気・物価の見通し

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Higher prices for gasoline and some other items in the aftermath of the hurricanes will likely boost inflation temporarily; apart from that effect, inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

金融政策（FF金利誘導目標）

金融政策（バランスシート縮小）

In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

投票結果

英語がわからない方はこちらを参照。

ロイター, ＦＯＭＣ声明全文

要点：

・雇用は堅調、失業率は低く、家計支出は緩やかに拡大し、企業の設備投資の伸びはここ数四半期で上向いている。

・前年同月比ではインフレ率は２％を下回り、長期的なインフレ期待もあまり変わっていない。

・ハリケーン「ハービー」や「イルマ」等のよる被害や被災地復興は短期的に経済活動に影響を及ぼすが、過去の経験では、中期的に国内経済の方向を著しく変える可能性は低い。

・今後も経済活動が緩やかなペースで拡大し、労働市場の状況はさらにいくらか力強さを増すと引き続き予測。

・ハリケーンの影響でガソリンやその他の製品の価格上昇のよる一時的に物価押し効果はあるだろう。しかし、前年同月比で見たインフレ率は短期的には引き続き２％をやや下回るであろう。但し、中期的には2％近辺で安定すると予測。

・政策金利は現状維持。

・2017年6月に公表した「FOMC issues addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans（金融政策正常化の原則と計画）」の補足で説明されているバランスシートの縮小は10月から開始。

・全会一致

私は今週9月17日の週報に予測を書いておきました。

ここから先は Shortman会員限定です。

Shortman為替レポートの10日間無料購読キャンペーンはこちら

注意

投資は自己責任です。読者の投資判断の最終決定に、我々は一切関与しません。この情報を用いて読者の方が損失を被っても、我々は一切の責任を負いません。我々はNY市場が世界の金融市場の未来を決めていると考え、NY市場を中心に分析しております。我々が用いるデータ、チャート、ニュースは、誰でもインターネットで無料で用いることができるものだけを利用して、できるだけ正確に理解し、できるだけ簡潔に、かつ、わかりやすく皆様に伝えられるように心がけております。また、個別株の分析は行いません。先物（株価指数・為替・商品・一部オプション）のトレードに必要な情報のみ提供しています。