おはようございます。
Shortmanです。
昨日はFOMC議事録が公表されました。
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
議事要旨はロイターから。
ロイター, 「近い将来」に利上げ正当化される可能性＝米ＦＯＭＣ議事要旨
大事な点は2点。
①利上げの可能性
②インフレ率に関する見解
利上げの可能性に関しては多くの参加者が利上げは正当化されると考えています。
“Participants agreed that they would continue to monitor closely and assess incoming data before making any further adjustment to the target range for the federal funds rate. Consistent with their expectation that a gradual removal of monetary policy accommodation would be appropriate, many participants thought that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was likely to be warranted in the near term if incoming information left the medium-term outlook broadly unchanged. ”
しかし、2番目のインフレ率に関しては意見が分かれており、FOMCの議決権を有するメンバーの中には、物価見通しに懸念を示し、利上げの時期を決める前に今後の経済指標を確認すると主張。
さらには、参加者の何人かは、物価の弱含みが長引いていることを懸念し、新しくより補完的な枠組みも検討するべきだという意見も示している。
“Several participants indicated that their decision about whether to increase the target range in the near term would depend importantly on whether the upcoming economic data boosted their confidence that inflation was headed toward the Committee’s objective. A few other participants thought that additional policy firming should be deferred until incoming information confirmed that inflation was clearly on a path toward the Page 8 Federal Open Market Committee _ Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective. A few participants cautioned that further increases in the target range for the federal funds rate while inflation remained persistently below 2 percent could unduly depress inflation expectations or lead the public to question the Committee’s commitment to its longer-run inflation objective.
In view of the persistent shortfall of inflation from the Committee’s 2 percent objective and questions about whether longer-term inflation expectations were consistent with achievement of that objective, a couple of participants discussed the possibility that potential alternative frameworks for the conduct of monetary policy could be helpful in fulfilling the Committee’s statutory mandate. One question, for example, was whether a framework that generally sought to keep the price level close to a gradually rising path—rather than the current approach in which the Committee does not seek to make up for past deviations of inflation from the 2 percent goal—might be more effective in fostering the Committee’s objectives if the neutral level of the federal funds rate remains low.”
とりあえず、大半のメンバーは、追加利上げは正当化されると考えている一方で、数名がインフレ率の伸びの悪さから利上げに反対しているようだ。
FOMCのメンバーでインフレ率の伸びの悪さを議論しているようですが、メンバーの間で統一された理解はなさそうです。
ここから先は Shortman会員 限定です。
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