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為替日報(2019年1月17日)

 

おはようございます。
Shortmanです。

 

こちらの日付では1月16日ですが、日本は17日になっております。
軽く時差ぼけ中です・・・(‘◇’)ゞ
レポートお休みの予定でしたが、ミーティングまで時間が出来たので書きます。
昨日はBeige Book(地区連銀経済報告)が公表されました。
まともに読むと長いので、要点だけ読めば済むし、それでも時間が無い人はロイターやBloombergの記事で十分。
サマリーから。

 

Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity increased in most of the U.S., with eight of twelve Federal Reserve Districts reporting modest to moderate growth. Nonauto retail sales grew modestly, as several Districts reported more holiday traffic compared with last year. Auto sales were flat on balance. The majority of Districts indicated that manufacturing expanded, but that growth had slowed, particularly in the auto and energy sectors. New home construction and existing home sales were little changed, with several Districts reporting that sales were limited by rising prices and low inventory. Commercial real estate activity was also little changed on balance. Most Districts reported modest to moderate growth in activity in the nonfinancial services sector, though a few Districts noted that growth there had slowed. The energy sector expanded at a slower pace, and lower energy prices contributed to a pullback in the industry’s capital spending expectations.
The agriculture sector struggled as prices generally remained low despite recent increases. Overall, lending volumes grew modestly, though a few Districts noted that growth had slowed. Outlooks generally remained positive, but many Districts reported that contacts had become less optimistic in response to increased financial market volatility, rising short-term interest rates, falling energy prices, and elevated trade and political uncertainty.

 

Employment and Wages
Employment increased in most of the country, with a plurality of Districts reporting modest growth. All Districts noted that labor markets were tight and that firms were struggling to find workers at any skill level. Minneapolis indicated that construction firms had turned down business because they could not find workers, and Atlanta reported that a few contacts were either actively overstaffing or retaining employees through lulls in demand in anticipation of future growth. Wages grew throughout the country, with the majority of Districts reporting moderate gains. Wages increased across skill levels, and numerous Districts highlighted rising entry-level wages as firms sought to attract and retain workers and as new minimum wage laws came into effect.

 

Prices
The majority of Districts reported modest to moderate increases in prices. Most Districts indicated that firms’input costs had risen, but reports were mixed on whether they could pass the higher costs on to customers. Reports often cited rising materials and freight prices as sources of cost increases, and a number of Districts said that higher tariffs were also a factor. While prices of most inputs were up, several Districts noted that fuel costs had gone down. A number of Districts reported rising home prices, while prices for commercial and industrial space either increased or were flat. Prices for agricultural commodities were generally somewhat higher.

 

だいたい以下のような内容が記載されている。
『ベージュブックでは「見通しは全般になお明るいが、金融市場のボラティリティーの高まりや短期金利の上昇、エネルギー価格の下落、通商と政治を巡る不透明感の高まりを反映して楽観的な見解が少なくなったと、多くの地区連銀が報告した」と記述された。
12地区連銀が11月下旬から1月7日までに集めた情報を基に、シカゴ連銀が作成した今回のベージュブックによれば、大半の地区で製造業とエネルギー業界の活動が鈍化し、数地区で金融以外のサービス業が減速した。
ベージュブックは「全ての地区が労働市場はタイトで、企業はどの技能水準の労働者でも確保に苦慮していると報告した」と記述。賃金は全米のあらゆる技能レベルで上昇したとし、大半の地区が報酬の緩やかな上昇を指摘したという。過半数の地区は全般的な物価が「緩慢ないし緩やか」に上昇したと報告した。』
まとめるとこんな感じ。

ここから先は Shortman会員 限定です。

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投資は自己責任です。読者の投資判断の最終決定に、我々は一切関与しません。この情報を用いて読者の方が損失を被っても、我々は一切の責任を負いません。我々はNY市場が世界の金融市場の未来を決めていると考え、NY市場を中心に分析しております。我々が用いるデータ、チャート、ニュースは、誰でもインターネットで無料で用いることができるものだけを利用して、できるだけ正確に理解し、できるだけ簡潔に、かつ、わかりやすく皆様に伝えられるように心がけております。また、個別株の分析は行いません。先物(株価指数・為替・商品・一部オプション)のトレードに必要な情報のみ提供しています。

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