最近の香港は中国からの観光客が激減していることや、
昨日はとうとう警官が発砲したようだ。
恐らくまた観光客が減るんだろうな･･･さて、
“As the year has progressed, we have been monitoring three factors that are weighing on this favorable outlook: slowing global growth, trade policy uncertainty, and muted inflation. The global growth outlook has been deteriorating since the middle of last year. Trade policy uncertainty seems to be playing a role in the global slowdown and in weak manufacturing and capital spending in the United States. Inflation fell below our objective at the start of the year. It appears to be moving back up closer to our symmetric 2 percent objective, but there are concerns about a more prolonged shortfall.”
主に3つの要因をモニターしているという。
１．slowing global growth（世界経済の減速）
２．trade policy uncertainty（通商政策の不確実性）
３．muted inflation（停滞するインフレ）
その上で、”Trade policy uncertainty seems to be playing a role in the global slowdown and in weak manufacturing and capital spending in the United States.”「通商政策を巡る不確実性は、
“Turning to the current context, we are carefully watching developments as we assess their implications for the U.S. outlook and the path of monetary policy. The three weeks since our July FOMC meeting have been eventful, beginning with the announcement of new tariffs on imports from China. We have seen further evidence of a global slowdown, notably in Germany and China. Geopolitical events have been much in the news, including the growing possibility of a hard Brexit, rising tensions in Hong Kong, and the dissolution of the Italian government. Financial markets have reacted strongly to this complex, turbulent picture. Equity markets have been volatile. Long-term bond rates around the world have moved down sharply to near post-crisis lows. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy has continued to perform well overall, driven by consumer spending. Job creation has slowed from last year’s pace but is still above overall labor force growth. Inflation seems to be moving up closer to 2 percent. Based on our assessment of the implications of these developments, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”
“We have seen further evidence of a global slowdown, notably in Germany and China. Geopolitical events have been much in the news, including the growing possibility of a hard Brexit, rising tensions in Hong Kong, and the dissolution of the Italian government.”「特にドイツや中国などで、
“Based on our assessment of the implications of these developments, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”「対照的な2%の物価目標に向けて、
ジャクソンホールでのパウエルFRB議長の講演のタイミングで、
『中国商務省は２３日、対米報復関税を発動すると発表した。
『中国が米国製品に対する追加報復関税を発表したことを受け、
2019年8月19日週のドル円概況：
週初19日（月）にドル円は106.
2019年8月19日週の予想レンジ：
104.50～107.50円
2019年8月19日週の実際のドル円：
105.25円～106.73円
2019年8月26日週のドル円予想：
23日に米中双方の関税引上げによる対立激化を嫌気して、
2019年8月26日週のドル円予想レンジ：
103.50円～106.50円
参考：
『ゴールドマン・サックスは、
私は103円よりも下を見ているが、
定点観測：
ダウとドル円
ドル円と米2年債利回り
ドル・インデックスと米10年債利回り
VIX
金価格
原油価格
Shortman’s View：
『エリア５１は長い間、
ラスベガスから２４０キロメートルほど離れたレイチェルの町の約
人口50人の街に200万人が来るとインフラが追い付かないなと
でも、宇宙人好きがエリア51のそばに集まるイベントが、
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